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2023

Global Onshore Wind Market Report

Key Regional Markets

Finland

Onshore Wind Capacity

15.3 GW

GDP (Current Prices) USD (2022)

281.05bn

GDP Growth Forecast (constant prices) (2023-2027)

1.04%

Currency

Euro

Country Credit Rating (S&P)

AA+

Renewable Energy capacity (2022)

12.1GW

Onshore Wind Share in Renewables (2022)

46%

Renewable Energy Target

Reducing GHG emissions by 60% by 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality by 2035

Finland is leading the way in European energy transition policy, with 59.4% of its power mix coming from renewable sources in 2022 (IRENA, 2023). Onshore wind power is the most prevalent source due to its abundant availability. In fact, 2022 has been a remarkable year for Finland as it recorded Europe’s second-largest onshore wind annual capacity addition. This remarkable progress is thanks to Finland’s strict and direct energy transition goals, which include achieving carbon neutrality by 2035. Moreover, Finland has recently updated its energy consumption targets to ensure that at least 51% of the country’s final energy consumption comes from renewable sources (Tamarindo Global, 2023). The government has also introduced various initiatives to boost the use of renewable energy and to phase out fossil fuels in industries such as transportation and electricity generation.

Pros

  • Commitment to stabilising regulation for onshore wind and funding initiatives are expected to boost onshore wind deployment

  • Significant traction was observed for subsidy-free onshore wind projects leading to robust pipeline of projects

Cons

  • Military restrictions due to wind farm impact on radar movement stagnated project developments

  • A shift in regulatory focus towards offshore wind and solar PV deployment is expected to hit onshore wind

Renewable Energy Mix

Source: IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics July 2023

Renewable energy in Finland is dominated by onshore wind, comprising 46% of the total mix, followed by renewable hydropower at 26%. Onshore wind has grown steadily over the years, increasing its share in the energy mix from 4% to 46% between 2012 and 2022, representing an impressive 11.5x growth (IRENA, 2023). This growth is attributed to the Finnish government’s policy support and strict energy targets, technological advancements in wind turbines, and the timely use of the abundant wind energy potential, particularly in the coastal and northern regions. Finland is currently ranked second in onshore wind cumulative installed capacity in the Nordic region.

Installed Capacity: Status and Trend

Trend in Installed Onshore Wind Capacity

Source: Preqin Global Report 2023: Private Equity

Finland has experienced a steady increase in its onshore wind installed capacity over the past nine years, growing at 33% CAGR. However, the annual capacity additions have been volatile, with the highest capacity additions of around 2.4GW in 2022, resulting in a cumulative installed capacity of more than 5.5GW (IRENA, 2023). This increase can be attributed to a faster permitting process, advanced wind turbine technology, and decreasing prices of turbines that have increased cost-effectiveness. Moreover, the majority of projects that were awarded in the last auction held in 2018 (Climatescope) are anticipated to be completed in 2022, thus explaining the surge in installations. Despite the implementation of subsidies and FiTs, Finland attracted private investments, reflecting its strong PPA and Merchant markets, which further boosted capacity addition (Wind Europe, 2023).

Demand Drivers

Finland’s wind energy industry is thriving due to substantial fiscal support and strategic initiatives. The government’s proactive approach, such as allocating additional funds for wind power surveys, studies, and permitting processes, demonstrates a commitment to accelerating wind energy deployment. The subsidy allocation of EUR1.5 million in 2022, in addition to previous subsidies, has significantly bolstered wind energy projects (IEA, 2023).

Local engagement is a key aspect, with property tax and radar compensation fees acting as mobilization tools. Wind projects contribute to the local economy by paying property taxes to municipalities and compensating for radar upgrades in specific regions (Finish Wind Power Association). These financial mechanisms, along with the gradual reduction in tax values, incentivize wind energy development and support local communities.

The upgrade plans for the electrical grid, outlined in Fingrid’s Main Grid Development Plan 2022-2031, are pivotal. By investing around EUR200 million annually over a decade, Finland aims to enhance the grid infrastructure, enabling the integration of renewable energy sources (FINGRID, 2021). This forward-looking strategy ensures that the grid system aligns with the evolving renewable energy landscape.

Additionally, the shift towards subsidy-free onshore wind projects, facilitated by corporate PPAs, has accelerated industry growth. Wind developers are partnering with major corporations like Google, Amazon, and Equinix, signing long-term PPAs that ensure profitability and stability in the market (ICIS, 2021). These agreements not only provide financial assurance but also drive the construction of new wind farms, meeting the rising demand for clean energy in Finland.

The synergy between government support, corporate investments, and local engagement creates a favourable environment for Finland’s wind energy industry, making significant strides toward a sustainable energy future.

Market Opportunity

Finland has a huge potential for wind power, with a pipeline of 121GW of new wind power projects. However, most of these projects are still in the early stages of development. The Finnish Wind Power Agency estimates that Finland has 3.1GW of wind power projects under construction, which are expected to go online between 2023-2025 (Finnish Wind Power Association, 2023). With its massive wind power condition, Finland added 251% more capacity in 2022 than in 2021.

Among the cumulative additions in 2022, about 2.2GW of wind power projects were subsidy-free. More such subsidy-free and merchant wind projects are under construction and are expected to go online by 2028, demonstrating Finland’s significant transition to subsidy-free wind power development following the withdrawal of subsidies in 2021. Therefore, it is projected that Finland’s onshore wind capacity will increase from just over 5GW in 2022 to 20GW by 2030, resulting in an annual capacity addition of 2.1GW (Renewables Now, 2022).

Wind power has significant potential in Finland, but there are seasonality constraints that need to be addressed. Advanced energy storage solutions could be the key to overcoming these limitations. Following the success of Neoen’s largest battery energy storage system, Taaleri Energia has announced a plan to invest around EUR20 million in 30 MW/36 MWh battery storage systems in Lempäälä, Finland (TAALERI Energia, 2023). This investment has the potential to double in the future, which will help to support the grid and increase the overall capacity of Finland’s wind farms. In another recent development, Ilmatar and Glennmont are partnering to pair a 211 MW Finnish onshore wind farm called Piiparinmaki with a 30 MW BESS (Renewables Now, 2023).

Finland’s stable and transparent political environment makes it a secure investment destination for investors. This is evident from the funds received from several European nations in recent times. In June 2023, Sweden’s OX2 AB partnered with Finnish renewable developer Tuulialfa to construct 1.2GW of onshore wind parks in Finland’s Northern Ostrobothnia and Lapland regions (Renewables Now, 2023). In May 2023, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP), a Danish investment firm, announced a partnership with Finnish wind energy company Myrsky Energia. CIP will invest €2.3 billion to generate approximately 1.8GW of onshore wind power in Finland over the next decade (YLE Finland, 2023). In 2022, another Danish firm, AIP Infrastructure II, invested EUR135 million in a 148.5MW onshore wind project in Finland to finance fully merchant long-term projects (S&P Global, 2022).

Outlook

Source: BNEF Global Wind Market Outlook

Finland’s onshore wind market is poised for significant growth, with substantial investments and ambitious capacity addition projections. The supportive market conditions, including price competitiveness, increased demand, and policy backing, have positioned Finland’s onshore wind sector as an attractive investment opportunity. The Finnish Wind Power Association’s estimates of substantial investments in wind power and the favourable environment indicate a positive trajectory for the industry (Finnish Wind Power Association, 2023).

However, challenges such as the shift in policymakers’ focus to offshore wind and solar, limited land availability, public opposition, and military restrictions due to radar issues pose hurdles (FINGRID, 2023). Overcoming these challenges will be crucial for sustaining the industry’s growth momentum.

Learning from Nordic peers and investing in research and technology to address radar issues and secure military approval could be essential strategies. Additionally, exploring innovative land-use solutions and engaging with local communities can mitigate opposition and enhance social acceptance.

Overall, the optimism surrounding Finland’s onshore wind energy, coupled with strategic solutions to existing challenges, positions the country for substantial growth. The projected quadrupling of wind energy’s share in electricity by 2030 underscores the industry’s potential and its pivotal role in Finland’s renewable energy landscape.

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